China tin concentrate imports dropped to 16,490t (gross weight) in March according to the latest official customs data released today, with almost 99% of concentrate arriving from Myanmar. Imports have fallen month-on-month in each of the last four months from the all-time record level of November. Although it is the dry season in the north of Myanmar currently, resulting in a seasonal peak in mining activity, production and purchases from China buyers have been reduced after Chinese New Year because of the big fall in the tin price.
China refined tin imports dropped to 232t in March – the lowest in the past 12 months. Total refined metal imports fell 26% to 1,358t in the first three months of 2015, the lowest quarterly total since 2008. Shipments from Indonesia in the latest quarter declined 18% to 461 tonnes. Indonesia has reduced the exports of crude tin, which was imported for re-refining by Chinese smelters, since its new export regulation was implemented from last November. Premiums in China were not large enough to encourage the trade in the past few months.
China’s domestic production of refined tin reached 39,300 tonnes during the first quarter, according to data from National Bureau of Statistics. This is the highest first-quarter total in data going back to 1997. As usual, we believe there is some double counting in the data. Production in China should reduce in April. The third biggest producer, China Tin, has stopped its Ausmelt furnace from 16 April for one month. Most smelters reportedly plan to reduce production from April due to the big risk of falling tin prices. Some secondary smelters are also facing difficulties because of a lack of scrap supply.
